Research Lab
Bring a weather idea. It is tested against official data, and the result is published pass or fail, in the open.
How a test works
1 · SubmitFive plain lines: the idea, the peril, the region, the dates, and what would count as a pass.
2 · Agree the testWe write the test down before looking at the answer, so nobody moves the goalposts.
3 · Run itAgainst official public data only. The method and the data are kept together.
4 · PublishPASS or FAIL, with the numbers, the method and the files to check it yourself.
The board
Every published test, newest first. Results computed by the lab are labeled MODEL; the data they use is official FACT.
No tests published yet.
The first results appear here with their data and method, whichever way they land.
The first results appear here with their data and method, whichever way they land.
Common questions
Who can submit an idea?
Anyone. A student, a storm spotter, a farmer, a researcher. Ideas are welcome whether they are likely to pass or not.
Will a failed test be published?
Yes. A fail is published the same way as a pass, with its data and method. A result that did not work out is still a result.
What data are tests run against?
Official public data, such as National Weather Service warnings and Storm Prediction Center reports, named on every result page with its source and date range.